The basic foundation that underlies the web really does seem to be in trouble:
- It’s failing to compete with native, both for user and dev mind share.
- Where it does dominate—as the primary format for media—it’s predominantly encapsulated in a compromised in-app browser that’s built into various social media apps and comes loaded with spy software that tracks whatever you do or read on the web.
- Which makes it an unmitigated privacy disaster.
- Tech as a whole has become the willing tool of a panopticon surveillance state but the web is a much bigger contributor and enabler than it should ever have been.
- Ads as a business model is destroying the user experience, skewing public discourse, and weakening the very fabric of our democracies. While the web isn’t the sole culprit, it is one of the biggest contributors.
- Many countries, democracies and dictatorships alike, are starting to exert more and more direct control over what their citizens can read, see, or publish on the web.
When a system like the web is breaking down, surely there must be one cause to blame, a single evil to root down, a villain that can be fought and beaten. It’s only human nature.
Consequently, we have all been picking our preferred antagonist whose defeat will solve everything and restore the web to glory:
- Google’s sect blame Apple’s iOS policies and under-investment, claim that it’s what is preventing web apps from being competitive with native apps
- Apple’s followers blame advertising and privacy violations and the poor bloated UX of most web apps.
- The free/libre/open source community blames proprietary code, silos, and double-plus un-good closed source operating systems. Basically, everybody else.
- Many blame both Google and Facebook, their advertising strategies and business model, their anti-competitive strategies, abuse of public discourse, and deceptive messaging.
- Web devs are called out for a near-universal, communal inability to make apps that aren’t bloated, inaccessible and unusable on the devices people can actually afford.
- Or, it’s all the fault of frameworks that lead developers into sin and away from one of the many one true paths.
- Yet more blame standards organisations. Web standards are either moving to slow, standardising the wrong thing, or both. It’s all their fault, for sure.
- Censorship. The Chinese have too much control over western platforms. Or it’s puritanism gone mad, US values are being enforced globally. The crackdown on sex work is taking too much of the web down with it. Governments are doing too much, too little, or both.
- Maybe it’s because Mozilla’s mismanagement lost them the lead they had over other browsers. Everything would have been fine if they’d continued to dominate, right?
Everybody is blaming everybody else.
I have a theory that we’re all kind of right—that chaos like this is what happens when a system starts to break down. The web has grown and evolved into a shape that cannot be held and is not sustainable. Everything starts to fall apart.
We cannot turn around the web’s decline by fixing any one of these issues. We need to fix them all, which is impossible, because they are symptoms, not causes, and the underlying cause is simply that the web has become too complex for it to be held together with the effort, work, and energy that’s available.
We are, in all likelihood, looking at the very beginning of the collapse of the web in its current form.
What do you mean by collapse?
The web doesn’t exhibit that many of these characteristics at the moment and it won’t come to exhibit all of them. But we are seeing the rise of the full-stack developer—master of nothing, practitioner of all; the web has begun to fragment along national lines; and economic and political groups online are so divided that they might as well be on separate planets. The web has become the place where information goes to choke to death—lungs full of scum—in stagnant and isolated ponds.
You can’t prevent this decline by fixing any one problem any more than you could prevent the decline of the Roman empire by fixing its sewer systems.
People are desperate to try anyway because they have a lot to gain by keeping the web platform gravy train going for as long as is possible. The web is also the closest we’ve gotten so far to an open and transparent universal computing platform. Unfortunately, its openness is also why it’s being plundered so hard.
The Web Isn’t Dying
This isn’t a “the web is doomed, DOOMED, I tells ya” kind of blog post. It’s more in the “the web in its current form isn’t sustainable and will collapse into a simpler, more sustainable form, possibly several” genre. Collapse doesn’t mean that it’s all going away—sociopolitical collapses usually don’t work that way. Most of the damage is likely in the collapse itself, when the system is breaking down into simpler components.
(I could argue here that the reason why it’s breaking down now is that it was fueled and held together by the global dominance of the American hegemony. When that began to slip, so did the web. But I’m not going to. Maybe some other day.)
The web itself will always be interesting, even when it’s only the next many small things instead of the next big thing. The big worry is the collateral damage caused by its decline. Most of us don’t appreciate just how much of the web is held together not by technology but by sociopolitical duck tape and bailing wire and that’s likely where most of the harm will take place. The web has become the backbone of all of our media and communications and as it declines, it has the potential to take our public discourse with it, and when public discourse goes, so do our democracies.
I honestly have no idea on how to mitigate this harm or even how long the decline is going to take. My hope is that if we can make the less complex, more distributed aspects of the web safer and more robust, they will be more likely to thrive when the situation has forced the web as a whole to break up and simplify. The IndieWeb movement feels like a good start. The basic principles of RESTful APIs are likely to survive whatever happens. Hypermedia based on HTML, CSS, and JS is probably going to outlast native-mimicking web apps. There might even be some niches where web apps are still competitive against native apps. It’ll be a different world, but some aspects of it will be the same.
Probably… Maybe. If we’re lucky.
Thankfully, we have some time—possibly quite a bit of time compared to the web’s usual hyper-accelerated pace—for us to figure out what to do.
Maybe the most optimistic take is that I’m just completely wrong about this and everything will be fine—we’re just experiencing a hiccup in the web’s road to triumph.
I hope so.
Update: when I said that the web isn’t dying, I meant it
On the distinction of ‘dying’ and ‘collapsing’ in this context: the Roman empire only ‘died’ from the perspective of those who benefited from the its massive consolidation of power in the hands of the few. All of the cities and communities that made up the Roman Empire continued to exist after its fall. In many cases the situation of those living in those communities improved because their society was no longer saddled with the cost of keeping up an incredibly complex and costly empire.
(This is a sweeping generalisation, I know. Think of it more as a metaphor than an accurate history lesson.)
So, the web is only dying for Google and Facebook whose power hinges on them being the only organisations capable of navigating the web’s complexity and openness to consolidate the web’s massive economic power into the hands of an advertising duopoly.
To the rest of us it’s just falling apart. Many, if not most, of the pieces will still be there afterwards. And most of the damage of the falling apart is likely to be done by Google and Facebook as they try to maintain their grasp on power, not realising that their grasp is actually a chokehold on society and public discourse.